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Topic Title: Man made climate change?
Topic Summary: Is the maths wrong?
Created On: 29 October 2012 09:35 AM
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 29 October 2012 09:35 AM
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rogerbryant

Posts: 867
Joined: 19 July 2002

Interesting article from the Mail online:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sci...tml?ito=feeds-newsxml

Does anyone have an alternative view of the data? This looks to be from fairly solid sources.

Best regards

Roger
 29 October 2012 10:40 AM
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amillar

Posts: 1918
Joined: 28 May 2002

For the Met office response see:

http://metofficenews.wordpress...media-14-october-2012/

The intro reads:
An article by David Rose appears today in the Mail on Sunday under the title: 'Global warming stopped 16 years ago, reveals Met Office report quietly released... and here is the chart to prove it'

It is the second article Mr Rose has written which contains some misleading information, after he wrote an article earlier this year on the same theme - you see our response to that one here.

To address some of the points in the article published today:

Firstly, the Met Office has not issued a report on this issue. We can only assume the article is referring to the completion of work to update the HadCRUT4 global temperature dataset compiled by ourselves and the University of East Anglia's Climate Research Unit.

We announced that this work was going on in March and it was finished this week. You can see the HadCRUT4 website here.

Secondly, Mr Rose says the Met Office made no comment about its decadal climate predictions. This is because he did not ask us to make a comment about them.

You can see our full response to all of the questions Mr Rose did ask us below:


-------------------------
Andy Millar CEng MIET CMgr MCMI

http://www.linkedin.com/in/millarandy

"The aim of argument, or of discussion, should not be victory, but progress." Joseph Joubert
 29 October 2012 11:07 AM
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rogerbryant

Posts: 867
Joined: 19 July 2002

Thank you Andy, I will study that link.

Best regards

Roger
 29 October 2012 11:17 AM
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amillar

Posts: 1918
Joined: 28 May 2002

Also Professor Judtih Curry, who is cited by the Mail to support the view global warming has stopped, has blogged here on this article:

http://judithcurry.com/2012/10...use-discussion-thread/

In particular:
I have no idea where the 'deeply flawed' came from, I did not use these words in any context that Rose should be quoted (perhaps I used them somewhere on my blog?) Also, I agree that 16 years is too short, given the timescales of the PDO and AMO, to separate out natural versus anthropogenic variability (but this cuts both ways: the warming period between 1980 and 1998 was arguably amped by the PDO and AMO). And while I am griping, why did he have to use that photo that makes me look like a gorgon .


-------------------------
Andy Millar CEng MIET CMgr MCMI

http://www.linkedin.com/in/millarandy

"The aim of argument, or of discussion, should not be victory, but progress." Joseph Joubert
 29 October 2012 01:58 PM
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rogerbryant

Posts: 867
Joined: 19 July 2002

Thank you for that link as well.

The met office discussion was quite interesting, especially with the input from the representative of the met office.

It seems that the basis of the article that there has been no significant global warming for the last 16 years is technically correct but the interpretation/conclusions may not be.

I think that the following comment from Judith Curry sums it up for me

'Climate models are very complex, but they are imperfect and incomplete. In that context the problem is how people interpret the simulations from climate models in view of the uncertainties and imperfections.'

The climate has changed, is changing and will continue to change but determining our influence is not easy. This should not however stop us trying to reduce our impact on the planet.

Best regards

Roger
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